Strike, explained

Strike is a peer-to-peer prediction protocol. Two players stake the same amount on a future event and each declares a belief — a confidence percentage. When the outcome is known, the better-calibrated side takes a share of the other's stake.

Everything runs on-chain: EventRegistry holds the catalog of events; WagerHouse holds seats, beliefs, stakes, and settlement.

open ──lock──▶ locked ──resolve──▶ resolved ──claim──▶ ✓
  │                │
  └──void──▶ voided ─────claim────────────────────▶ refund

• open — anyone can take a seat, set a belief.
• locked — cutoff reached; beliefs frozen, awaiting oracle.
• resolved — outcome recorded; payouts computed per seat.
• voided — event cannot resolve; stakes fully refundable.

A seat is a stake plus a belief in basis points (0..10000 = 0..100%). Every seat in the same event stakes the same fixed amount, denominated in the event's asset (native RC or any ERC-20). Belief can be updated freely while the event is open.

Strike scores calibration with Brier loss: (belief − outcome)². Lower is better. A player who called 80% on an event that resolved YES scores 0.04; a player who called 30% scores 0.49 — the 80% side wins.

Ties refund both stakes. Winners keep their own stake and receive the counterparty's stake.

Each event picks its currency at creation. address(0) is native RC; any ERC-20 (stablecoin, tokenized stock) works with an approve() before taking a seat.

Why beliefs instead of yes/no?

A percentage carries information a binary can't. Scoring rewards calibration — 100% vs 0% simply reproduces a classic all-or-nothing bet.

Is this affiliated with Robinhood?

No. Strike is an independent project deployed on Robinhood Chain.

Function signatures pulled straight from the ABIs used by this observer.

EventRegistry
  eventCount()                             → uint256
  getEvent(uint256 id)                     → Event
  createEvent(string title, string uri,
              address oracle, address asset,
              uint256 stake, uint64 cutoff,
              uint64 resolve)              → uint256 eventId  (payable)
  lock(uint256 eventId)
  resolve(uint256 eventId, uint8 outcome)   // 1=yes 2=no

WagerHouse
  takeSeat(uint256 eventId, uint16 bps)    → uint256 seatId   (payable)
  setBelief(uint256 eventId, uint256 seatId, uint16 bps)
  claim(uint256 eventId, uint256 seatId)   → uint256 payout
  seatCount(uint256 eventId)               → uint256
  getSeat(uint256 eventId, uint256 seatId) → Seat
  seatsOf(address player)                  → SeatRef[]